I'm not expecting them to shut down or maybe not even contain LSU and QB Jayden Daniels. The Tide have allowed more than 21 points just once all season.

I'm just unwilling to trust LSU defensively, and I am 'Bama. They can't stop the run, allowing 171.5 ypg when they lose, which should allow Kentucky RB Ray Davis to do his thing and create timely passing opportunities for Devin Leary. All four of their conference losses have been by at least a touchdown. The Bulldogs are offensively challenged, scoring 20 points across their last eight quarters and four times in five league games, posting 17 points or less. That flirts with making this a must-win, and I trust them to do just that, making this low-ish spread something I feel confident targeting. The Wildcats are a wounded group right now, having dropped three straight. They are at the part of their schedule where they should start reeling off wins, which started last week with a 14-point win, and I look for them to build on that here, using a power running game to pound Vanderbilt's soft run defense. But, I'm willing to give them a bit of a pass, having played Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU and Mississippi in conference. Auburn hasn't scored more than 27 against anyone other than UMass and Samford, so this may feel a bit uncomfortable. Their only FBS win is over Hawaii they've scored more than 21 points just twice during their seven-game losing streak and are allowing 38.1 ppg. No one will confuse Auburn with a top-tier team this season, but Vanderbilt is just far worse. My trend this week is going against bad teams. But ultimately, they are the better side and should stretch out a two-score win.

They, too, shot their shot at Ohio State last week and could be due for a hangover.

Wisconsin has plenty of offensive warts with QB Tanner Mordecai out and RB Braelon Allen banged up. It's their fourth-straight loss, the previous three coming by double-digits, and their only wins are against Indiana State and Akron. Despite taking Penn State to the wire, they still fell by nine. The thought here is the Hoosiers shot their shot last week still came up short and won't get up here.

Best bets week 4 college football